The Open Dialogue Project's Summer Expert Meetings Explore the Future of the Global Economy and World Development

The Open Dialogue project hosted its Summer Expert Meetings on July 17 at the National Centre RUSSIA

Maxim Oreshkin, Deputy Chief of Staff of the Presidential Executive Office, along with experts and essay authors, discussed the main findings of the TRIM Center's report, “People, Technology, and Globalization: A New System of Coordinates,” with a particular focus on its five megatrends shaping the future of the global economy and society.

“If you are not thinking about the future, you lose sight of the present. The trends we are discussing are already reshaping the world around us. Technological innovation, shifts in the global financial system, the rise of digital platforms, and demographic change are already affecting our lives and will continue to do so in the years ahead. Understanding the forces driving these trends—as well as the pathways and scenarios through which they may unfold—is essential,” Maxim Oreshkin said.

The discussion took the form of a “stress test,” bringing together experts from a range of disciplines, including the Open Dialogue essay authors. Each of the report's five megatrends was presented by a subject-matter expert, who offered an alternative perspective on the report's core arguments.

Oreshkin said the stress test format offered a valuable opportunity to critically assess the report, arguing that rigorous debate is essential to developing a deeper understanding of the major trends shaping the global economy and society. He added that the report would remain a living document, subject to further refinement and revision in light of the discussion and ongoing analysis of emerging trends.  

Globalization 2.0: Autarky or Global Cooperation? Defining the Future of Technology Sovereignty

The first panel examined the evolution of globalization and the meaning of technological sovereignty. Yury Maksimov, co-founder of the Cyberus Foundation, and Positive Technologies, discussed the emerging digital architecture and the risks associated with excessive centralization of IT systems. He argued that true sovereignty is not about “building everything independently,” but about understanding technological systems, maintaining control over critical infrastructure, and ensuring the ability to replace vulnerable components through international cooperation. In his view, full technological sovereignty can ultimately be achieved only through cooperation rather than isolation.

“Sovereignty has both a financial and a non-financial dimension. The former concerns the cost of developing specific capabilities, while the latter depends on cooperation. Effective collaboration between governments and businesses, as well as among companies, can play a critical role in strengthening sovereignty. For example, developing high-quality AI for cybersecurity is not about building the biggest neural network; it is about building a robust dataset from analyzed real-world incidents, cyberattacks, and vulnerabilities,” Yury Maksimov explained.

He noted that digitalization has become one of the key forces reshaping the economy and society, driving both the transformation of markets and, in many ways, the erosion of human agency. The expert also emphasized that in today’s world, it is not only individuals who risk becoming “invisible,” but also countries: not every nation has the capacity to build a full technology stack at the level of the world’s leading technological powers.

“Our task is to build a digital environment that, above all, empowers individuals and countries to preserve their sovereignty while creating opportunities for broader global engagement. This creates significant potential for cooperation, where progress is driven by coordinated efforts and trust,” the speaker added.

A New Financial System or the Evolution of the Existing One?

The discussion then shifted from globalization to the future of the financial system. Alexander Isakov, Senior Managing Director, Head of the Center for Macroeconomic Research at Sberbank, explored the potential of central bank digital currencies and the resilience of the traditional financial model. He argued that the existing two-tier system of central and commercial banks remains an effective and modern framework, supporting the development of financial products, capital markets, and more efficient payment systems. In his view, technological advances call not for a fundamental redesign of the financial architecture, but for improved regulation and greater international coordination.

“Higher debt levels and interest rates are symptoms rather than the underlying problem. The fundamental role of the financial system is to support sustainable growth, providing governments with resources and improving living standards. As long as debt translates into real GDP growth, society retains the capacity to continue developing,” Alexander Isakov emphasized.

Addressing central bank digital currencies, the expert cautioned against overstating their transformative potential. He argued that the practical role of CBDCs remains unsettled: while some use cases are already being explored, others have yet to be defined. The key priority, he said, is not to replace the banking system with a central bank monopoly, but to preserve competition, efficiency, and the financial sector’s capacity to support economic growth.

Platforms or Agents: Who Will Define the Next Decade of Digital Intermediation?

The third megatrend focused on the expanding role of digital platforms and artificial intelligence. In his presentation, “States or Platforms: Who Governs the New Economy?”, former Yandex executive Tigran Khudaverdyan argued that the world’s most successful platforms function much like exchanges: they match providers of goods and services with those who generate demand, while algorithms play a central role in balancing supply and demand in real time.

“If a platform fails to effectively match supply and demand, it cannot succeed. The competition between companies operating in the same markets today is, in many ways, a competition between algorithms and the mechanisms they use to balance supply and demand,” Tigran Khudaverdyan noted.

He added that platforms have become a new organizational layer of the economy, as an expanding range of sectors—from transportation and healthcare to education—moves toward platform-based models. The next stage will be the rise of AI-powered “agents” that act on behalf of individuals and businesses within these platforms, reducing transaction costs, helping identify optimal solutions, and creating new challenges for the governance of the digital environment.

Adaptation or Mitigation: Can the Global Decline in Fertility Rates Be Reversed?

The discussion then turned from technology to demographic trends. Jelena Milicevic-Prorokovic, advisor at the UNRAD initiative and an Open Dialogue finalist from Serbia, offered an international perspective on population aging, changing family structures, and the increasing strain on social systems. She also proposed a new framework for demographic policy centered on the concept of demographic sovereignty.

“Demographic sovereignty is a country’s capacity to independently establish the institutional, economic, social, and cultural conditions that allow people to freely pursue their desire to start families and have children. It is not about regulating personal choices, but about addressing barriers such as instability, the high costs of raising children, housing constraints, and insufficient support,” the expert explained.

Jelena Milicevic-Prorokovic added that people are the foundation of a country’s sustainable development. At the same time, she emphasized that a key prerequisite for shaping the future is creating conditions that enable young people to fulfill their potential.

“For me, everything begins with people. They are the ones who shape our future. One of our key priorities today is to create conditions that enable young people to access quality education, pursue their ideas, and build their futures here in Russia. Young people bring new energy, fresh perspectives, and the courage to think beyond conventional approaches. This energy is a driving force for development. That is why, when discussing the future, we must look beyond the present and consider future generations—what kind of environment, opportunities, and sense of confidence we are creating for them today,” Jelena Milicevic-Prorokovic noted.

Human Agency in the Age of AI or AI in the Age of Humans?

The concluding discussion focused on the role of humans in the new AI-driven reality. Dmitry Peskov, Special Representative of the President of the Russian Federation for Digital and Technological Development and CEO of the NTI Platform, argued that the world is becoming increasingly shaped by disparities in access to AI models and the ability to effectively leverage them.

“This stratification is already taking shape. When governments such as those of the United States and China begin restricting access to advanced AI models, they are effectively contributing to a new divide in technological access and capability,” Dmitry Peskov emphasized.

He noted that education in the age of AI should not focus primarily on training “technology operators,” but on developing a generation of creators who can maintain human agency and take responsibility for their decisions. Society’s task is to use AI not to reduce human cognitive capabilities, but to amplify human potential—transforming technology into a tool for empowering people rather than replacing them.

The discussion concluded with participants agreeing that the new global landscape does not call for abandoning globalization and technology, but for the ability to manage interdependencies, strengthen institutions, and place people—with their freedom of choice and responsibility for shaping the future—at the center of long-term development strategies.

Learn more in the latest episode of OD on Air.

YouTube: https://youtu.be/tpzJn30yb1Y?si=ofC0fClnTH7UD1vr